Politics

3 Big Things Today, November 6, 2024

1. Soybeans, grains lower in overnight trading

chicago-board-trade
Photo: Lars Plougmann

Soybean, corn and wheat futures plunged in overnight trading after Donald Trump was again elected president of the U.S., raising concerns about tariffs he’s threatened to impose. 

Trump, who secured more than the 270 electoral college votes needed to defeat current Vice President Kamala Harris, has said he plans to impose widespread and stiff tariffs on imported goods, which would likely trigger a trade war. 

The future and former president has said he will impose a 10% tariff on all imported goods and an additional 60% tariff on Chinese imports in a bid to boost manufacturing in the U.S. 

China is the world’s largest importer of soybeans. 

Other countries would no doubt retaliate and enact tariffs or other measures on U.S. goods, making it more difficult to export items including agricultural products. 

Economists from the National Corn Growers Association and American Soybean Association said in an Oct. 15 report that corn and soybeans, which compose about a quarter of ag exports from the U.S., are “prime targets for tariffs.” 

China already imposes tariffs on U.S. goods but has a waiver for certain items, said the report, which was commissioned by NCGA and ASA and done by World Agricultural Economic and Environmental Services.

If the Asian nation were to cancel those waivers and impose its tariffs, soybean exports to China may fall by 14 million and 16 million metric tons annually, a 52% decline from baseline projections, in years when the waivers have been revoked, the report said. Corn imports by China likely would fall by about 2.2 million tons annually, an average decline of 84% from baseline forecasts, the report said. 

Brazil would likely be the beneficiary of a trade war between the U.S. and China. 

Soybean futures for January delivery dropped 17 1/2¢ to $9.84 1/4 a bushel overnight on the Chicago Board of Trade. Soymeal was down $5.70 to $293.80 a short ton, and soy oil gained 0.17¢ to 45.16¢ a pound. 

Corn futures lost 2¢ to $4.16 1/2 a bushel.

Wheat futures for December delivery declined 8¢ to $5.64 1/2 a bushel, and Kansas City futures dropped 8 1/2¢ to $5.68 1/4 a bushel. 

2. Trump wins U.S. presidency, takes Wisconsin, Pennsylvania

Donald Trump was again elected president of the United States in a comeback that returns him to the White House. 

The Associated Press early this morning declared Trump the victor anticipating he’ll end up with 277 electoral college votes versus 224 for current Vice President Kamala Harris. 

Trump won the usual Midwestern states including Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri and Oklahoma, amongst others, while Harris took Minnesota and Illinois.

Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, important swing states, went to Trump, sealing the victory. 

The former and future president won in 2016 before being defeated in 2020. 

JD Vance, 40, of Ohio will become vice president after winning his first election two years ago. 

3. Storms rumbling across Missouri, Illinois

Strong storms continue to rumble though the Midwest this morning, moving east through parts of Missouri, Arkansas and Illinois, according to National Weather Service maps. 

Flood warnings are in effect for several counties in Arkansas and southern Missouri and Illinois, the agency said. 

“River and areal flooding will linger through today” in southern Missouri, NWS said. “Some rivers are still in moderate to major flood stages.”

Winter storms warnings and watches have been issued for parts of the southern Plains. 

Counties in the Oklahoma and Texas panhandles are under a winter storm watch while much of New Mexico and parts of Colorado near the Texas and Colorado borders, respectively, are facing winter storm warnings. 

In northeastern Colorado, between 3 and 12 inches of snow are expected today into Thursday. Winds are forecast to gust up to 40 mph and blowing snow will reduce visibility, the agency said. 

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