I’ve been reporting from Pennsylvania for the past week, describing it as the battleground state where polling suggested Donald Trump and Kamala Harris were neck and neck. Well, now we know, Trump has spectacularly turned Pennsylvania red once again – along with vast swathes of the US.

When I landed in America, I had no idea who would claim victory but during my time on the campaign trail I became convinced that Harris had it in the bag.

Perhaps it was a side effect of spending much of my time in the liberal echo chamber of Philadelphia, but I would have put money on the Republican losing this election. Here’s why.

Pennsylvania’s largest cities, including Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, tend to lean Democrat. So shortly after arriving, we drove out to the suburbs to check the temperature of Trump support.

We found seas of Harris-Walz signs planted on manicured lawns and no shortage of Democrats happy to chat. There were some Trump signs around too but during a day spent knocking on doors his backers were in short supply.

Rather than being a true reflection of the nation’s voting intentions, this may have been the phenomenon of shy Trump supporters in play. While Democrats were shouting about their campaign, many Republicans are thought to have quietly cast their votes without feeling the need to publicly endorse their preferred candidate.

Nonetheless, the Democrat campaign appeared strong. We heard about buses of volunteers travelling from other states and cities, particularly New York, to canvass in key areas.

In Bethlehem, Northampton County, state legislator Steve Samuelson told he was feeling “very confident”. “I’m seeing a lot of good signs, a lot of energy, many volunteers going door to door and talking to their neighbours,” he added.

Several Democrat voters also told us that they knew Republicans who were not voting for Trump because they didn’t like his character or actions after the last election.

Attending their rallies one after the other also influenced my prediction. At one of Trump’s final events in Virginia, I found his rhetoric clumsy at times and too reliant on repetitive attack lines and insults.

But while it was not my cup of tea, there was no denying that it went down a storm with his audience. The former – and now future – President’s enduring popularity shows that many Americans appreciate his straightforward and unpolished communication style.

Harris’s final rally in Philadelphia was a star-studded extravaganza, with backing from Lady Gaga, Oprah Winfrey, Ricky Martin, Will.i.am and many other celebrities. And I found her speech far more concise and focused on what she would do for the country, rather than being preoccupied with trying to tear down her rival.

In the end, however, her message did not resonate with the majority of voters and celebrity endorsements mattered less than the feelings of ordinary Americans frustrated with everyday issues like the price of groceries and illegal immigration.

Hopes for Harris remained high as the polls closed, with chants of “when we vote, we win” echoing around the room at a Democrat watch party in Philadelphia. The mood soon soured as it turned out to be a night of heartbreak for many in the City of Brotherly Love.

As I head home to recover from a chaotic week spent watching history unfold, I’ve learned not to try and predict the voting patterns of a divided nation based on the views of the most vocal and visible activists. The only thing left to say is: Congratulations, President Trump.