Borussia Dortmund will be looking for their third consecutive win when they face Mainz 05 on Saturday at Mewa Arena in their 10th Bundesliga match of the season.
Mainz are currently 13th in the table with 10 points from their first nine games. They played out a 0-0 draw with Freiburg on November 3, while Dortmund are in fifth place with 16 points, having won 2-1 against RB Leipzig on November 2.
Mainz struggled in attack during their draw with Freiburg, managing just two shots on target in the entire match, both of which came in a short window between the 51st and 59th minutes.
The O-Fives are only two points clear of 16th-placed Hoffenheim, who are in the relegation playoff spot, but there’s still a gap of just five points between Hoffenheim and eighth-placed Stuttgart.
To Mainz’s credit, they’ve shown improvement compared to last season. At this stage in the 2023-24 season, they had only three points from nine games, with six losses and three draws. This season, they’ve managed 12 goals but conceded 13, making them the Bundesliga’s fifth-worst attacking team and seventh-best defensively.
Mainz have drawn their last two Bundesliga matches, but before that, they lost two and won one of their previous three games. It’s also worth noting that they failed to score in three of their last five league outings. At home, their form has been disappointing they’ve lost three of their last five Bundesliga matches and haven’t won any of their last five at Mewa Arena.
As for Dortmund, they come into the match with confidence after a 1-0 win against Sturm Graz in the Champions League on Tuesday. BVB were missing several key players and had struggled with three losses in their previous four matches, but the victory lifted them to seventh place in their Champions League group, securing an automatic qualification spot for the time being.
In their most recent Bundesliga game, Dortmund ended RB Leipzig’s unbeaten run with a 2-1 win on November 2. Despite conceding the opening goal in the 27th minute, Dortmund were dominant throughout, registering 20 shots, creating six big chances, and limiting Leipzig to none.
Dortmund’s form has been inconsistent, with three wins and three losses in their last six Bundesliga matches. However, their away record is concerning they’ve lost their last five away games, conceding 15 goals and scoring only five during that stretch.
Given Mainz’s struggles, Dortmund will be favored to pick up three points on Saturday, though their poor away form could make this a tricky match for them.
INJURIES & SUSPENSION
Mainz will be without central defenders Andreas Hanche-Olsen and Moritz Jenz until late November, but otherwise have a fully fit squad.
The hosts are likely to line up with a back three of Dominik Kohr, Stefan Bell, and Maxim Leitsch in front of goalkeeper Robin Zentner. In midfield, Kaishu Sano and Nadiem Amiri are expected to form a double pivot, while Jonathan Burkardt will lead the attack, supported by wingers Paul Nebel and Jae-sung Lee.
Dortmund, on the other hand, have a number of key absentees to contend with. Defenders Julian Ryerson, Yan Couto, and Niklas Süle, along with goalkeeper Gregor Kobel, remain sidelined.
Up front, Dortmund will also be without Karim Adeyemi, Giovanni Reyna, and Julien Duranville, though midfielder Marcel Sabitzer is available again. Sabitzer is expected to start in midfield, likely alongside Felix Nmecha, while midfielders Pascal Groß and Emre Can may be forced into defensive roles.
In attack, Serhou Guirassy is expected to lead the line, with Jamie Bynoe-Gittens and Maximilian Beier likely to support him on the wings.
POSSIBLE LINE-UPS
Mainz 05 possible starting lineup:
Zentner; Kohr, Bell, Leitsch; Caci, Sano, Amiri, Mwene; Nebel, Lee; Burkardt
Borussia Dortmund possible starting lineup:
Meyer; Gross, Can, Anton, Schlotterbeck; Nmecha, Sabitzer; Beier, Brandt, Gittens; Guirassy
EXPERT PREDICTION
Mainz 05 2-1 Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund’s recent struggles on the road are hard to ignore, especially with the likelihood that they’ll have to field midfielders in defense.
Given Dortmund’s vulnerabilities, Mainz have a real chance to capitalize and secure a win. It wouldn’t be surprising if the hosts were able to exploit the visitors’ weaknesses on Saturday.
