Arsenal are masters of managing games – but only when in front

With the direct and pacey Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli, Arsenal possess one of the most potent counterattacking pairings in the top flight.

A back four of Ben White, Gabriel, William Saliba and Jurriën Timber, in addition to Declan Rice and Mikel Merino in midfield, means they also have one of the most robust, physically imposing XIs in the Premier League, capable of pulling up the drawbridge and repelling waves of attacks as they sit in a defensive block and protect their lead.

However, in order for Arsenal — who tend to play against opponents who sit back and defend deep — to be able to demonstrate these characteristics, they need a lead, so their opponents step forward as they chase the game (thereby leaving space in behind and creating opportunities for those Arsenal attackers).

Getting those leads has proven a little more difficult than usual this season, however. Arsenal have led matches for 32 per cent of time this season; last season that figure was 45 per cent, and in the previous campaign, 47 per cent.

One underappreciated element of tactics is that they are largely decided by the game state — in other words whether a team is winning, losing, or drawing.

Without the lead, teams often require a piece of individual brilliance, a mistake from their opponents, or a set piece for a goal.

Opponents have begun to wise up to Arsenal’s set-piece tactics

Widely heralded as the best set-piece side in the Premier League, Arsenal scored the most goals from corners and free kicks in the top flight last season, building upon the success they have had since Nicolas Jover, the set-piece coach, joined from Brentford.

However, Arsenal’s opponents have paid attention to this area of strength, both deploying tactics to limit their efficacy and exploiting gaps in Arsenal’s defensive plays. Bournemouth and Liverpool, for example, used blind-side runners to get in ahead of Kai Havertz (Arsenal’s front-post defender) to score with smart flick-on routines.

Set pieces were, and still are, a key component of Arsenal’s ability to get breakthrough goals to open the game up — they have scored four times to take the lead from them already this season — but early goals generally have been harder to come by.

Too dependent on Saka

Of Arsenal’s 28 goals this season, Saka has scored or assisted ten, meaning the England international is responsible for 35 per cent of all their goals.

But goals and assists do not fully reflect Saka’s influence, nor his role as the side’s principal attacker. One measure of influence is known as “on-ball value” — a calculation of how a player’s actions are likely to lead to a goal (or prevent one from an opponent).

Unsurprisingly, Saka leads the division for “on-ball value” this season, ahead of a few surprising names such as Jarrod Bowen (4.74) and Nathan Collins (4.27), but also clear of established players such as Salah, Bryan Mbeumo (4.46) and Cole Palmer (4.21).

But Arsenal’s problem is that only Saka and Martinelli are providing “on-ball value” for their team.

Saka and Martinelli rank first and 12th respectively, yet Arsenal’s next highest-ranking player is Thomas Partey, in 84th.

When looking specifically at how likely it is that passing leads to a goal, a similar sort of story plays out: Saka is ranked 9th and the next two best Arsenal players are Declan Rice (29th) and Martinelli (58th).

When considering just dribbling, Saka again leads the way (2nd), followed by Martinelli (5th), but the next best is Rice (62nd) — demonstrative of the creative burden placed on Saka and Martinelli, and the absence of support for them.

An imbalanced attack

Saka’s centrality to Arsenal’s attacking play is reflected in the share of the team’s attacks from the right of the pitch: 51.4 per cent have come on his side, compared to 24.8 per cent on the left, and only 23.8 per cent through the middle.

While, in the past two seasons, Arsenal’s attacks tended to come down the right, the degree to which Arsenal attacked down one side was not as high as it is now.

Missing Odegaard

One name absent from that list of Arsenal’s best-ranking players for “on-ball value” is Martin Odegaard, the captain, who is also responsible for the team’s attacks through the middle of the pitch.

Until his brief cameo against Inter Milan from the bench, Odegaard had not played since the 1-1 draw against Brighton & Hove Albion in August, before suffering the ankle injury that sidelined him for two months while on international duty with Norway.

The midfielder has already, according to Arteta, raised the level of team training since his return, while his influence on the pitch as both a conductor of play and leader of the press is nearly unmatched.

His 22 goals and assists last season and the same number the season before was bettered only by Saka — in both campaigns.

Odegaard holds a relatively unique position in the Arsenal team.

Whereas his midfield team-mates are primarily tasked with control — of both possession and space — Odegaard is trusted by Arteta to take risks with the ball at his feet — he has consistently ranked as the best player in the side for progressive passes, specifically those into the penalty area.

Whereas his team-mates tend to work the ball sideways as they look for openings, it is Odegaard who has the ability and licence to exploit those openings.

The midfielder’s return may help rebalance the team, but so too may the inclusion of Ethan Nwaneri, the 17-year-old who has shown the sort of urgent, forward-thinking, attacking play that only Saka is offering to the side at the moment.

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