Donald Trump’s election win could see a huge influx of illegal migrants into Canada as they flee the US for a state which previously vowed to welcome them. t.
Canadian police and migrant aid groups are bracing for the arrival of asylum-seekers from the US at the same time they are dealing with record numbers of refugee claimants. Some are likening the anticipated surge to a ‘worst case scenario’
President-elect Trump swept to power this week in part on a promise to enact the largest deportation in American history.
Canadian police have been preparing for months, Royal Canadian Mounted Police Sergeant Charles Poirier said on Thursday.
‘Worst-case scenario would be people crossing in large numbers everywhere on the territory,’ he said.
‘Let’s say we had 100 people per day entering across the border, then it’s going to be hard because our officers will basically have to cover huge distances in order to arrest everyone.’
The police chief said his teams had been prepping a ‘contingency plan’ for Trump’s election, warning that it could drive illegal migration and irregular migration into Quebec and Canada.
When Trump first came to power in 2017, thousands of asylum-seekers crossed into Canada between formal border crossings to file refugee claims – overwhelmingly at Roxham Road, near the Quebec-New York border.
Roxham Road is no longer an option: Canada and the U.S. expanded a bilateral agreement so that now asylum-seekers trying to cross anywhere along the 4,000-mile border, instead of only at formal crossings, are turned back unless they meet a narrow exemption.
It comes as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced a huge U-turn on his immigration policy amid dismal ratings for his Liberal Party in the polls as the country buckles under record numbers of migrants.
In July, almost 20,000 people filed refugee claims, according to Immigration and Refugee Board data.
Experts said the figure is the highest monthly total on record and was driven by global displacement.
The number has since dipped, to about 16,400 in September, but remains historically high. There are more than 250,000 claims pending, according to the board.
Trudeau revealed the government will slash the number of immigrants allowed into the country for the first time in years.
Canada is set to allow 395,000 new permanent residents in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027, down from 485,000 in 2024, according to the National Post.
But migrant aid groups warned that closing off legal routes for asylum only leads to more risky migration practices.
‘When you don’t create legitimate pathways, or when you only create pathways where people have to do the impossible to receive safety, you know, unfortunately, people are going to try to do the impossible,’ said Abdulla Daoud, director of The Refugee Centre in Montreal.
Police are on ‘high alert,’ Poirier said, prepared to deploy additional resources to patrol the border.
Depending what happens that could mean hundreds more officers. It could also mean more cruisers, chartering buses, building trailers and renting land.
‘All eyes are on the border right now,’ Poirier added. ‘We were on high alert, I can tell you, a few days before the election, and we’ll probably remain on alert for the next coming weeks.’
Toronto’s FCJ Refugee Centre already serves dozens of new asylum-seekers a week, its founder Loly Rico said.
Trump’s election is ‘going to impact Canada,’ she said. ‘We will start seeing more people crossing the border, appearing in cities and looking for support.’
She worries about what will happen in the winter. In 2022, a family of four froze to death trying to cross the border near Emerson, Manitoba.
‘It’s going to be a challenge for any refugee in the United States to feel that they belong, and that’s why they will start looking what other countries can start giving them protection.’
Canada’s immigration department ‘will continue to prepare and anticipate all possible scenarios, any approach taken will be first and foremost in the best interest of Canada and all those who live here,’ Immigration Minister Marc Miller’s office wrote in a statement.
