For the second time in two years USA Rugby will get a chance to take on arguably their most frustrating opponent on the international stage.

Not because of a long history of competition (the two nations have met only four times, with the USA holding the edge 2-1-1), but rather for the embarrassment in the most recent two matches. In 2018, on a last second penalty to salvage a draw, Portugal eliminated the Eagles from the World Cup and took that trip to France for their own.

Last year, given the chance to salvage some pride and prove the qualifier a fluke, USA allowed a tight 22-20 match to run away into a 46-20 hiding. With the match once again taking place on Portuguese soil, the Eagles will look to travel overseas and reestablish their competitiveness with their Tier 2 peer.

The USA’s most recent foray into the international scene, the Pacific Nations Cup, did not produce the wins the Americans sought but it did provide a glimpse at what head coach Scott Lawrence is building. Tight matches against Fiji and Samoa showcased tireless defense and abrasiveness at the contact point, as well as an ability to corral counterattacks. Clever strikes off a stable-to-dominant set piece established a desire to attack and score quickly. Smart tactical kicking belied a maturity and patience not always seen in the Eagles. But with a history of finding silver linings in such matches, can the Eagles actually put the completed product on the pitch?

For Portugal, the Tier 2 darlings of the World Cup after a historic win over Fiji, recent matches have produced mixed results. With only two summer tests, a drubbing by South Africa and a comfortable win over Namibia, questions will surround their cohesion and connectivity. However, for a team that often relies on individual brilliance to score, not all fifteen players need to coordinate to get the result. Can those stars find their feet and find the right gaps to put Portugal away?

Why Portugal can win

Time and again Portugal have shown an ability to create magic out of nothing, often through the brilliance of fullback Manuel Cardoso Pinto and centers Jose Lima and Tomas Appleton. In their last matchup with the USA, these players’ quick feet punished tired American legs, consistently creating line breaks and scoring opportunities. With three tries in the last 20 minutes of that match, the USA’s good defensive work in the first half meant nothing. Similarly, for the USA in the Pacific Nations Cup, despite some excellent spells of connected, aggressive defense, both Samoa and Fiji eventually broke down the tired Eagles to find the try zone. As a team that loves to spin the ball wide (and back again), Portugal is comfortable maintaining long possessions and waiting for their chance to strike.

Defensively, Portugal aims to keep men on their feet and fill the width rather than aggressively contest the breakdown. Judging by the American struggles in recent matches to manufacture attack and go forward, they’ll be frustrated by the lack of space and either kick back to the dangerous Portuguese counterattack, or try to force a pass and likewise create a broken field for Los Lobos.

A Portuguese win will come from exciting set piece attack and broken play, along with consistent, tireless defense that forces the USA into the uncomfortable position of creating their own opportunities.

Why USA can win

With a full year of the Scott Lawrence regime at their back, the Eagles arrive in Portugal a markedly different side than the one that collapsed last year. With only six players from that day likely to appear in this weekend’s fifteen, we can expect a different performance, especially given the injection of the likes of Jamason Fa?anana-Schultz and AJ MacGinty. The former will lead a bruising ball-carrying campaign, while the latter will pull the strings as he has at the highest levels of the game. The Americans should find dominance in the set piece, both scrums and lineouts, but especially in the maul as they look to reignite this weapon from the PNC. Smart attack and kicking from MacGinty will put the USA in position to use this approach, with strong strike moves to keep the Portuguese honest. As for the Portuguese spread defense, this approach falls apart with sufficient carry and breakdown dominance– the attack repeatedly punches holes in the defensive line and either forces more defenders to commit or simply maintains possession as they march down the pitch.

On defense, the Americans proved in the PNC they can maintain sufficient connection to limit the bleeding against high-flying teams like Fiji. Though Los Lobos will likely find a gap or two, especially as the legs tire, if the Americans control the clock and score as they should, the balance of points will end in their favor.

The Bottom Line

The Eagles have proved they’re willing to put in the work to rebuild their game plan and ethos in the Scott Lawrence model, and the Americans we saw in the PNC are leaps and bounds ahead of those from last year’s drubbing. Against a rusty Portuguese side, they’ll put enough of the pieces together to outscore a few moments of Portuguese brilliance. USA to win by two tries.