How much can a month change? Apparently, a little and a lot. New Zealand were last in Sri Lanka few weeks ago, where they were promptly dispatched 2-0 in the Test series, and then sent along to India in trepidation for – what everyone presumed – would be a similar shellacking.

Sri Lanka, meanwhile, were simply tasked with continuing the good vibes. They’d lost the Test series in England but a consolatory final Test win had been sandwiched between an ODI series victory against India and the Test series win against New Zealand. West Indies, who they had not beaten in a T20I series ever, were up next and Sri Lanka duly proceeded to create history by winning the ODIs and T20Is. The vibes have been good.

As for New Zealand, from not even having a ticket they’ve just had a bump to first class aboard SS Vibes, having completed a quite astounding 3-0 Test whitewash of India in India.

Even though this is a different format and their squad has an almost different look – save for Mitchell Santner, Glenn Phillips, Will Young, Michael Bracewell, Ish Sodhi and Mark Chapman – it’ll be churlish to presume there won’t be some pep in their step even if some of them were blanked 0-2 in the Galle Tests not long ago. The New Zealand-India series just proved that recent form often counts for nought.

Throw in the tasty morsel of a T20 World Cup some 15 months away – one which Sri Lanka is co-hosting – and you have all the elements for a fierce contest. Here are some big talking points for the series ahead:

Looking to the future

Sri Lanka’s T20I squad is unchanged from the one that played against West Indies. Aside from one or two areas, they look largely settled in terms of the make-up come the 2026 T20 World Cup.

New Zealand, however, have made a raft of changes from the group that suffered a group-stage exit in the Caribbean. Sure, Tom Blundell, Devon Conway, Tom Latham, Daryl Mitchell, Will O’Rourke, Rachin Ravindra, Tim Southee and Kane Williamson were all not considered for selection as they opted to prioritise prep for the home Tests against England starting later this month. But Trent Boult, Matt Henry, Finn Allen and James Neesham, are all star names left out since the summer tournament. And among the few who have opted out, the clock could be ticking for the likes of Williamson, Southee and, to an extent, Mitchell.

This, therefore, is a youthful squad, supplemented by some experienced (but not necessarily old) heads looking to stake a claim in this new T20 cycle that culminates with the 2026 World Cup.

“Our white-ball squad at the moment is getting on the older side,” conceded Santner on the eve of the first T20I. “So giving these guys a chance to play international cricket, get a feel for it, and when they do maybe breakthrough into that full-strength team. It’s a great series for them to play.”

Oh seamers – where art thou?

Sri Lanka’s fast-bowling talent has never been as strong as it is currently. A non-exhaustive list includes, in no particular order, Matheesha Pathirana, Nuwan Thushara, Binura Fernando, Asitha Fernando, Dushmantha Chameera, Dilshan Madushanka, Kasun Rajitha and Lahiru Kumara. These are just some names. Into that mix comes Mohamed Shiraz, who’s set for his T20I debut this series, while Eshan Malinga has impressed with the ‘A’ team.

It is in this context that it needs noting how many overs of seam bowling Sri Lanka utilised in the three T20Is against West Indies. The seamers bowled only 17.1 overs, of which 7.1 overs were bowled by Pathirana. Yes, the same Pathirana who was just retained by IPL franchise Chennai Super Kings for a whopping US $1.56 million bowled only 43 balls out of a series quota of 72.

It’s no secret that Sri Lanka’s recent home success has come on pitches suited more to spin. A strong argument is that there is no harm in playing to one’s strengths at home. It is a winning strategy in the short term, but it’ll be intriguing to see if Sri Lanka continue with that approach, as it seems to be coming at the expense of a generation’s worth of seam-bowling talent.

Mind the conditions

Sri Lanka’s spinners might have played a key role in their 2-0 triumph over New Zealand in October, but the Black Caps’ stunning performance in India provides a captivating backdrop on their return to the isle.

Dambulla is expected to continue aiding spin and turn, but in Santner, Phillips and Ish Sodhi, New Zealand have the tools to hurt Sri Lanka if conditions prove favourable to them. They’re also buoyant after their remarkable show in India.

And while it’s true that Sri Lanka’s batters have done well in combatting opposition spinners at home, there are two caveats. New Zealand were perhaps a touch undercooked ahead of the Tests in October, while the West Indies, by their own admission, bowled poorly.

“It was my first game back [in Tests] after a lot of white-ball cricket for me personally,” Santner said on Friday, as he sought to explain his poor figures during the Galle Tests. “[I was] trying to just get into a rhythm in red-ball. Felt like I wasn’t too far away in Sri Lanka…but I felt the accuracy might have been lacking a touch.”

Moreover, if Sri Lanka persist with spin-friendly surfaces – specifically against this fairly green New Zealand outfit – they need to be mindful of unintentionally bridging the gap between the two sides while at the same time limiting their own strengths: namely their strong batting and seam-bowling contingents.

One thing that could play a role is the weather. Rain is predicted across the week, though crucially not on for the first two T20Is. Nevertheless if rain is around, the likelihood of seam playing a role might increase, even if not by design.

Do Bhanuka and Chandimal fit?

Sri Lanka’s squad may be largely settled, but the inclusions of Dinesh Chandimal, and to a lesser extent Bhanuka Rajapaksa, suggests that there is still some muddled thinking as far as squad composition is concerned.

In Pathum Nissanka, Kusal Mendis, Kusal Perera, Kamindu Mendis and Charith Asalanka, it’s hard to argue that Sri Lanka don’t have a pretty ideal top order. There’s brashness, composure and abundant talent right there.

Then, in Wanindu Hasaranga and Maheesh Theekshana, they possess world-class spin talents, while any of the aforementioned fast bowlers slot into the XI easily.

Finally, there are the all-round options in the excellent Dunith Wellalage and the promising Chamindu Wickramasinghe – one bowling spin, the other seam. Wickramasinghe is a unicorn of sorts for Sri Lanka, more so after the ultimately doomed Dasun Shanaka experiment. He is a seamer who can clear the ropes. Game time for them could prove fruitful.

Which then begs the question, where exactly do Chandimal and Rajapaksa fit? In Sri Lanka’s last three T20Is, the former has not played, while the latter has come in at No. 6, where his primary skillset went largely unused. And this is without getting into fielding, where Bhanuka sometimes falls short.

When you add that both these squad spots could be utilised by batters such as Nuwanidu Fernando or Sahan Arachchige – to name just two – who have impressed domestically, the argument for including either Chandimal or Rajapaksa, leave alone both, seems increasingly questionable.