The new UEFA Champions League 2024-25 reaches its halfway point in the group stage. The 36 clubs have already played their first four games and, although the scenario is not yet, by any means, definitive, many are beginning to draw the calculator to calculate and make estimates about their immediate future in the competition when it’s time for the playoffs. Go ahead, it is not easy, but at MARCA we are going to try to shed some light.

We remember: the The top eight teams go directly to the round of 16. while from 9th to 24th place, the so-called playoffs will have to play a two-legged eliminatory (about the round of 32). The winners will join those already classified and the classic format will begin from the round of 16 with the 16 best. This is how the crossings would be today.

Before the start of the competition, Piotr Klimek, mathematics specialist in Football Rankingspredicted how the Champions League classification would be in its first phase through advanced statistics, thus offering two key figures that can serve as a reference at this point. The minimum of points to be among the top eight would be about 14.87while for get among the 24 best and, therefore, secure the playoff, would be 9,87.

Right now, The club that marks the last qualifying position for the playoff is PSV Eindhoven – which has 5 points – and outside would be, today, clubs like PSG, Stuttgart, Girona or RB Leipzig. With this mathematical estimate and with 12 points left to play, we analyze, team by Spanish team, their calendars and their options to stay alive in the competition.

Barcelona is the one that has the best chance of getting directly into the round of 16. Right now those of Flick have 9 points, they are sixth and they would be virtually ranked according to advanced statistics. With one point they would ‘ensure’ playing at least the playoff.

As for being among the first eight, with the 14.87 points as an estimated figurethe Barcelona team should win 2 of the 4 games left. They would thus add 15 points and, according to the mathematical reports, it would be enough.

They have: Brest (casa), Borussia Dortmund (out), Benfica (out) and Atalanta (casa).

Right now those of Ancelotti They are in a delicate situation, especially thinking about qualifying for the round of 16. To get into the playoff, a priori and taking into account the work of the UEFA mathematician, with a win and a draw in the four remaining games they would be among the top 24 (would add 10 points for the estimated 9.87).

To get into the top eightthe whites should improve their current records to reach the figure of 15 points. That is to say, win 3 of the 4 that remain.

It remains: Liverpool (out), Atalanta (out), Salzburg (house) and Brest (out).

The red and white scenario is similar to that of the whites, since they have the same points, although always with the asterisk on the calendar, different for both. With a win and a draw should be enough to avoid being eliminated at the first change.

To get into the top eight, The rojiblancos should envision a regular League finish with 15 points, which would mean win at least 3 of the 4 duels what lies ahead

It remains: Sparta Prague (out), Slavic Bratislava (casa), Leverkusen (home) and Salzburg (away).

Those of Michel They are the Spanish team that has the most difficulty in getting, at least, into the playoffs. They only have 3 points, so thinking about getting into the top eight is practically a utopia (they would need to win all the games, thus adding 15 points in total).

Be in the playoffs and not being eliminated would mean, at least, win two games and draw another. So would register 10 points which, according to this study, would be enough for them to fight to advance to the second round.

It remains: Storm Graz (out), Liverpool (casa), Milan (out) and Arsenal (casa).